On the Edge: The Art of Risking Everything

“On the Edge: The Art of Risking Everything” by Nate Silver

I thought this was a fun read. I follow the author through 538 political polls ... but I didn’t know his history.

“On the Edge” is basically a book about strategy and risk told in the language of a gambler. Silver describes different players in the risk community from founders to venture capital to investors.  He uses a few metaphors (the River) to describe how the system works.

The most universally useful lessons from the book are: “The 13 Habits of Highly Successful Risk Takers”:

• Cool under pressure

• Leverage

• Strategic empathy

• Process over results

• Raise or fold attitude

• Prepared

• Attention to detail

• Take shots

• Adaptable

• Good estimators

• Stand out (not fit in)

• Conscientiously contrarian

• Not driven by money

Silver tells a story about each trait ... making them good leadership lessons.

Silver walks through some examples to demonstrate risk management versus speculation. He dedicates several chapters to FTX, always a healthy reminder about the difference between venture risk taken by domain experts and arrogant disasters driven by the “smart kids.”

It ends with a few reflections on the current political situation; maybe an antidote to improve the odds for all.

• Agency ... allowing more people to have good options whenever benefits/risks are transparent.

• Plurality ... don’t let any group (i.e., tech) to get too much power.

• Reciprocity ... treat others as capable of rational behavior

This is a fun, 500-page book with gambling references in every chapter!